The Book Is Dead...

or so the e-generation, some authors, and paper book publishers would like you to think. It seems like only yesterday that we were told that God was (also) dead. I think God is safe for the time being, but the commercial nature of the book publishing industry places the printed book in greater peril.

You can’t avoid all the “hype” for electronic books this holiday season. The Kindle®, the Nook®, Sony Reader® and other e-reading devices were popular holiday gift choices. Thousands of people are now curled up on their sofas, hot cocoa steaming on nearby side tables, while their cool 21st Century devices madly download discounted best sellers. The joy of novelty prompts e-readers to shout the benefits of device ownership to whoever will listen. Even those who do not wish to listen have no choice but to nod in silent approbation while the gift recipient demonstrates features, boasts about the size of their “library,” and waves each page forward and back again in a manner designed to induce mal du mer. Non-e-readers remain courteous and try to exhibit appropriate interest with well placed “Ohhs” and “Ahhs” peppering these often one sided conversations—all in keeping with the season to be jolly. The e-book readers are not my idea of a good time, but I have already written about that. However, I wish you joy of your device.

The e-book manufactures and online “bookstores” are sincerely delighted with your purchase. Publishers need not concern themselves with printing presses, shipping, vendors or remainders. The devices sold well and web sites like Amazon®, GOOGLE Books®, iBooks® rake in easily earned profits with little or no overhead costs. “No shipping or paper was harmed during this transaction“. Load up on the latest best sellers and avoid the reserve lines at the local library. Lighten your luggage while taking your favorite authors on vacation with you. The advantages grow exponentially—if that’s your thing AND if you are really reading the material.

Publishers may find the e-book to be a mixed blessing. Currently digital downloads increase profits over and above the 75-90% that the publisher’s holding the copyright protects. Traditional production of a physical book requires that the publisher assume the costs of editing, design, printing, marketing, and author advances. E-books eliminate the costs associated with production and distribution while the publisher maintains control over who and what gets published.

Many writers grow restive and resentful of publisher's power over their creative processes. They see self-publishing as a way to reverse the profit equation, bring the lion's share of profits to the writer directly. Those who have had difficulty getting published view self-publishing as a way to break into print. In an article in the Los Angeles Times (December 26, 2010), a trend towards writer entrepreneurship was discussed. Established writers hope to cut out the middle man, retain copyrights, directly market their product, and allow reader/subscribers the opportunity to interact with the creative process.

In November I attended a seminar discussion of Irish and Irish American authors who were discussing the future of the book. A few of the writers appeared to be in denial about e-publishing. Most expressed a reverence for the physical object that enriches the reader's experience. Only one had used an e-book reader. In general few of the authors had considered self-publishing in digital direct formats.

Author Frank Delaney, denizen with pride of place on the panel, was eager for e-publishing to become dominant. His plans include adding hypertext links to words, ideas, places, and references alluded to in his stories thereby making reading a more interactive experience. [I do question whether this is actually reading or some hybrid. The distractibility factor looms large in the hybridized format.] The consensus of the panel was that the physical book will survive. The chief concern voiced was with regard to quality--both of the written word and of review. What will self-publishing mean for excellence? Will the lack of a publishing house result in a loss of revenue rather than in greater profit? How will “best sellers” be determined? By viral acclaim, by number of “hits,” or will a new review process need to be developed? Quality remains the unaddressed question in digitized, downloadable self-published books. Most of the panel felt e-books would be an opportunity for greater circulation, but that its time had not yet come.

Its time is coming faster than expected. For the first ten months of this year 9% of publishing was digital, a fast rising percentage. Interestingly enough print book publishing has dropped 23% in those ten months, which has much more to say about reading in general than it does about digital books. (Data is from the LA Times article mentioned above.)

Are fewer people reading over all? I fear so, despite increased library circulation. For the past year I have been observing my fellow airline passengers as each waits to board the airplane. In past years I enjoyed surreptitious glances at the titles of the books my fellow passengers were reading, sometimes striking up a conversation about a particular book or author. Within the past year things have changed. Very few are reading anything! Many are on the phone or texting, others toil over their computer keyboards; some play games or watch movies; others create their own personal worlds while attached to earbuds.

Can’t we all just get along? I believe that popular physical books and e-books will co-exist for at least two generations more but eventually it will be determined that paper publishing is not cost effective--always the death knell of a product. Generations to come will not “connect” with the physical object and books will become museum pieces. Academic publishing may survive longer. The cost of academic publications has always been high but the cost/benefit analysis has been in favor of the physical entity. Eventually journal-type articles will predominate over academic books in the social sciences and humanities as is the case with scientific and medical information already. Articles are distributed electronically now; paper's dominance will erode quickly. Access to our heritage of literature will be provided in digital format through services like Project Gutenberg and GOOGLE Books’ digitation project but one must wonder at how many “prints” will be requested when digitation is cheaper and quicker.

Do not be mislead, digitation has problems too. Evidence points to problematic preservation of electronic bits and bytes. Some materials from the 1990s are being lost as electronic information starts to vanish of its own accord. Additionally electronic materials suffer from platform drift. How many computers can read the 5 inch floppies created on the DOS driven computers of two decades ago? Does anyone know if there is a storage limit for electronic information that exists somewhere, on some server, in some time?

Research has begun to focus on how people read and retain electronically produced print media. Comprehension suffers in direct proportion to the amount of material covered. Most readers follow an “F” reading pattern; initially whole lines are read through only to drop off to a word or two per line as the reader scans less effectively and eyes tire. Hypertext links, while enormously interesting, and potentially enriching, interfere with concentration. Context can easily become lost in digitally linked information. One wonders how many will persist through to the end of large works like Crime and Punishment or former President Bill Clinton’s memoirs on an e-reader?

Both formats will co-exist for many more years, but print’s popularity will wane as future generations gravitate to graphic and digital resources. Digitized materials will predominate eventually. Print will persist in some form too. It will not happen in my lifetime, and probably not in my grandchildren’s, but it will happen. To those of us who value the physicallity of the printed book the world will be a poorer place for this migration in much the same way that shared cultural experience was diminished by loss of the oral narrative. Diverse formats survive, even as proportions vary. Reading and listening have enriched audiences for hundreds and thousands of years in diverse formats. Humanity will survive digitation and that is the point. It is the ideas that must survive.

Merry Christmas from Sunny California

Sunny? We've been in LA County nearly a week and are growing web feet. The "Pineapple Express" is providing much needed rain for the California aquifers and reservoirs but it is a pain in the posterior just days before Christmas. The California drivers remain undaunted filling the roads and freeways, albeit with their tops up.

Santa will need a large amphibious craft to deliver his presents around here. I wonder if OSHA requires Mae-wests for each reindeer? Really, it is already difficult for a mid-westerner to cope with temperatures above freezing in December; now you want us to imagine how much snow this rain would be equivalent to? Fortunately I don't have to shovel it!

Right now I am looking for a place to build a holiday ark. Tradition says it should be 300 cubits long, 50 cubits wide and 30 cubits high. What the heck is a CUBIT?

Wishing you and yours a sloshing Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Keep warm; keep dry. Gurgle, gurgle...